Rice continues to sit out training camp and reports have surfaced that two of the three hip specialists Sidney Rice consulted this offseason recommended he undergo surgery. He decided against surgery but the hip injury could linger into the 2010 season. There is speculation that the decision to avoid surgery was because Rice and agent Drew Rosenhaus are postering for a big pay day as he’ll be a free agent in 2011.
No secrets here, he is a rookie. Not many rookies come in and perform at a high level for the entire season. I don’t expect the Chargers to expand Darren Sproles’ role beyond the 3rd down back, but he will definitely be utilized in certain packages and if Mathews falters in pass protection, we will definitely see more of the speedy Sproles. Bruising fullback Mike Tolbert who has almost a 30-pound weight advantage on Mathews and could steal some goal line carries. We are all familiar with the term “rookie wall” as they are just not used to the grind of an NFL season. And let’s not forget that SD ranked 31st in the league last year in rushing and was dead last in YPC at 3.3 yards per carry. Will this line improve enough to open holes for a running back that will be learning on the fly? Veteran LT Marcus McNeil and WR Vincent Jackson are prepared to sit out the season in a contract disputes. Defenses will be allowed to focus on stopping the run more with little threat at the wide receiver position other than TE Antonio Gates and an inexperienced replacement for McNeil. That is a lot of questions for a player being selected as a RB1 that has yet to see a carry in the NFL.
3. WR Andre Johnson, Houston
In his seven seasons as a Pro, Johnson has averaged only 6 TD’s per season. His 9 scores last year were a career best. Part of the reason is that Johnson is severely underutilized around the goal line. Even at 6’3”, 225 he was thrown to just 7 times inside the ten yard line last season. Compare that number to his peers; Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne and Calvin Johnson were well into the double digits in that category. Johnson scored just 2 of the team’s 13 TD passes inside that area. Houston seems to prefer to call plays for their running backs and TE’s in that area of the field. And speaking of tight ends, Owen Daniels was on pace for career numbers before tearing up his knee in week 8 and is said to be ready to go full speed week 1. In the first eight games of the season when Daniels was healthy, Johnson averaged 5.5 catches, 87 receiving yards and caught four TD’s. In the final eight games that Daniels missed with injury, Johnson averaged over 7 catches, 109 yards per game and scored 5 touchdowns including the two inside the ten yard line. Bottom line, Daniels is a factor in Johnson’s targets. Johnsons’ success is also tied to his QB, Matt Shaub. Shaub had a career year in 2009 but it was the first year since joining the Texans that he did not miss time due to injury. He has missed 10 games, 5 in each of the 2 previous seasons. Johnson is being drafted in the first round when there are plenty of other safe choices on the board at other positions.
4. QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
50 sacks. That’s right, Rodgers was sacked a league high 50 times last season and we all know it only takes one to end a season. Can he keep putting up with the punishment? So far he has not missed a game, but another season of that type of pounding will start affecting him and his time on the field. As mentioned above, Rodgers has an advantage over some of the other top quarterbacks because of his versatility. Over the past two seasons he has totaled over 500 rushing yards and scored 9 touchdowns. Can we count on this production to continue? Rodgers ranks in the top 5 or 6 in the major passing categories and he should continue to do so, but if these additional rushing stats decrease, he has little chance to finish at the top of the QB pool, which is where he is being drafted. A very risky move considering if that added production declines, it can quickly put you behind the 8-ball as you are passing on superior talent at other positions this early in the draft. Green Bay will also be playing a much tougher schedule rather than the 2nd easiest that they were fortunate enough to play in 2009.
5. RB Shonn Greene, New York Jets
While there are certainly a lot of things in Greene’s favor this season, 108 carries as a back-up and 2 1/2 playoff games is a small sample size to work with. Can he carry the load for a full season? Will he stay healthy with his bruising running style? Let’s not forget that he was thrust into the RB2 role last season only after Leon Washington was lost for the year with a broken leg, otherwise we might not have seen him much at all. He missed a chunk of training camp with an ankle injury that also caused him to miss the first couple of games. He also had a rib injury during the season and it showed up again in the playoffs, causing him to sit out the second half in a loss to the Colts that ended the Jets’ run. Management also saw fit to bring in LaDainian Tomlinson to spell Greene, especially in passing situations. Greene did not catch a single pass last season and had a whopping total of 8 receptions in his one full season as a starter at Iowa. Tomlinson may also be used around the goal line where he made so many of us happy for so many years.
6. WR Miles Austin, Dallas
This is an offense loaded with talented playmakers and Austin won’t sneak up on anybody this year. Eight of his eleven touchdowns came from at least 22 yards out and six of those eight were from an average of 53 yards away. Defenses are not going to let him get behind coverage with that much regularity this year. With the acquisition of first round draft pick Dez Bryant, a drop in targets is sure. Jason Witten only caught 2 TD’s on the same number of targets as Austin. That number is sure to go up and the Dallas coaches have been saying they are going to call more plays in the red zone to their Pro Bowl tight end. A healthy Marion Barber and Felix Jones may also cut into production in the overall passing game.
7. RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis
Jackson has missed time due to injury in all but one of his seasons in the NFL. This includes missing no fewer than nine games over the past 3 years and seems to be constantly listed as questionable on the weekly injury report. Jackson underwent back surgery in the offseason and while reports are positive at this point, this may affect him one way or another this season. The Rams drafted QB Sam Bradford and he should start right away. With a mediocre receiving core and an underachieving offensive line with injury problems of their own, defenses key on Jackson. He continuously faces eight and nine man fronts and if not for his size, speed and ability he probably would be out of the league by now with a career ending injury. Bad team=few scoring opportunities. Jackson scored just 4 times last season and has just 18 touchdowns in the teams last 39 games. Workload could also be catching up to Jackson. He carried the ball 324 times last year and averages over 335 touches a season since 2005.
8. RB Ray Rice, Baltimore
The Ravens have put together a deep receiving core to go with a young, potential Pro Bowl caliber quarterback in Joe Flacco. They added Pro Bowl wide receiver Anquan Boldin to line up along with the experienced Derek Mason, TE Todd Heap and speedsters Dante Stallworth and Mark Clayton. With an aging defense and a depleted secondary, (Ed Reed may miss the first six weeks following off season hip surgery and staring corner Domonique Foxworth lost for the year with a knee injury), Baltimore may end up throwing more and running less. Another concern is that Rice is not used in goal line packages. Rice touched the ball 332 times last season but on only one occasion did he score a touchdown from the goal line on just 7 attempts. Veteran Willis McGahee handled most of those short yardage carries resulting in 12 touchdowns and fullback LeRon McClain added a couple scores as well. It is hard to envision this changing much when it worked so well last season which limits his upside.
9. TE Dallas Clark, Indianapolis
As mentioned above, Clark had a career year. Considering that he had never broken the 80-reception mark, his 100 catches last year seem a bit fluky. Seasons like the one he had just don’t happen that often for his position. A perfect storm for Clark so to speak. In the first 8 games of the season, Clark caught a remarkable 60 passes and racked up 703 yards. But in the second half of the season, defenses began keying on Clark and with the emergence of Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie, the targets dropped. Both of these receivers should see an increase in production this season and one of them could potentially break out making Clark the 3rd option once again like he was when Harrison and Wayne were lining up next to him. Clarks’ averages as the 3rd option: 37 receptions, 404 yards and 3.5 touchdowns per season between 2003 and 2006. Also, Clark has been somewhat of an injury concern though out his career as well. He has missed at least 1 game in each season prior to 2009. With so many weapons at Manning’s disposal it is difficult to project Clark to repeat his remarkable 2009 season.
10. WR Brandon Marshall, Miami
Brandon Marshall has caught more than 100 passes in each of the last three seasons and is coming off a career-high 10 touchdown receptions with the Broncos in 2009. Unfortunately, because of a trade that sent him to the Dolphins during the offseason, his prospects for the coming year have become somewhat cloudy.Miami’s offense relies on a run-first approach that is likely to limit the number of looks Marshall has grown accustomed to seeing through his time with the Broncos.
That being the case, it becomes highly unlikely Marshall will tally 100 receptions for a fourth consecutive season. He’s more likely than not to finish in the range of 75-85 receptions in 2010. Applying that range at a rate of 12.1 yards per catch—Marshall’s average over the last three years—the fifth-year veteran would post anywhere from 907 to 1,028 yards receiving during his first season as a Dolphin.
Another scenario that is likely to play out involves a drop in Marshall’s touchdown total from a year ago. Given Miami’s run-heavy philosophy, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect Marshall to record any more than 6-8 touchdowns this coming season.
Overall, the former Bronco should have himself a productive season, just not one that is likely to crack the Top Ten among fantasy receivers.
Matt Field
TenYards.com Sports Editor